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Tesla Delivery Estimates Survey

A list of of analyst's estimates for Tesla's quarterly deliveries

tesla, finance, investing

129 entries Actual deliveries ❯❯ 139,300

Average excluding min/max 10% ❯❯ 143,185 143,905 143,994 96.63% 3.37%

Median ❯❯ 145,000 144,550 145,000 95.91% 4.09%

Timestamp Username Twitter Q3 2020 Delivery Est [round 1, 24 Sep] Q3 2020 Delivery Est [round 2, 30 Sep] Q3 2020 Delivery Est [final estimate] Accuracy Error Link to more info about your Q3 estimate [round 2] Link to your calculation for 2021 Comments [round 2]

30 Sep 2020, 04:54 32no 139,500 139,500 99.86% 0.14%

21 Sep 2020, 03:04 Erwin @epostema 138,950 138,950 99.75% -0.25%

28 Sep 2020, 10:14 ABEND 138,950 138,950 99.75% -0.25%

30 Sep 2020, 16:19 Tesla Crossroads @Tesla_Indiana 138,700 138,700 99.57% -0.43%

21 Sep 2020, 09:23 Dragonite @DragoniteDD 140,000 140,000 99.50% 0.50%

23 Sep 2020, 21:36 Josh @Joshjoshnjosh 140,000 140,000 99.50% 0.50%

24 Sep 2020, 13:23 tsla007 140,000 140,000 99.50% 0.50%

28 Sep 2020, 12:58 Chris D @stofkri7 140,000 140,000 99.50% 0.50% Best guess

29 Sep 2020, 15:10 Droulas @droulas13 140,000 140,000 99.50% 0.50%

28 Sep 2020, 13:30 Thinky78 @Thinky78 138,555 138,555 99.47% -0.53%

21 Sep 2020, 03:35 Varzel @Varzelhaar 138,500 138,500 99.43% -0.57%

28 Sep 2020, 08:14 Tiki 138,500 138,500 99.43% -0.57%

29 Sep 2020, 15:56 Doggydogworld 140,300 140,300 99.28% 0.72% Production 145k

28 Sep 2020, 07:48 Dr Eam Co Ding 🔋📈 $TSLA @xDreamCoding 140,420 140,420 99.20% 0.80% Let's go!

28 Sep 2020, 07:56 Dan 138,000 138,000 99.07% -0.93%

28 Sep 2020, 09:04 iicsa @iicsa3 138,000 138,000 99.07% -0.93%

28 Sep 2020, 19:41 James @TSLAFanMtl 141,000 138,000 138,000 99.07% -0.93% US 56k, EU 27k, China 40k, Canada 5k, RoW 10k

28 Sep 2020, 07:45 @cbotnyse @cbotnyse 137,500 137,500 98.71% -1.29%

28 Sep 2020, 07:45 Jonathan Abraham @Jonatha76691372 137,500 137,500 98.71% -1.29%

30 Sep 2020, 11:48 DarknStormy614 @DarknStormy614 142,433 141,402 141,402 98.49% 1.51% Great work, Troy. I think Europe registrations came in just a bit lower.

29 Sep 2020, 14:49 Andreas Hopf 141,422 141,422 98.48% 1.52% https://twitter.com/Andreas_Hopf/status/1311056289385111552

21 Sep 2020, 00:31 VBRaj @grajeevtvm 142,000 142,000 98.06% 1.94%

21 Sep 2020, 16:28 TSLA_John @John10510 142,000 142,000 98.06% 1.94%

30 Sep 2020, 08:33 ValueAnalyst @ValueAnalyst1 142,000 142,000 98.06% 1.94%

21 Sep 2020, 09:22 Bill_Freedom777 @Bill_Freedom777 142,069 142,069 98.01% 1.99%

28 Sep 2020, 12:16 Bradford @bradsferguson 142,069 142,069 98.01% 1.99%

28 Sep 2020, 14:36 @B_HiTech 142,069 142,069 98.01% 1.99%

29 Sep 2020, 16:45 Glen Mullet @glenmullet1 142,420 142,420 97.76% 2.24% https://twitter.com/glenmullet1/status/1307031839111106561?s=20

21 Sep 2020, 03:22 Fyx0z @DiondeBoer 142,500 142,500 97.70% 2.30%

30 Sep 2020, 04:28 The Accountant 142,500 142,500 97.70% 2.30%

22 Sep 2020, 00:03 Naijamusings @naijamusings 142,599 142,599 97.63% 2.37%

20 Sep 2020, 22:32 Mooroobee @mooroobee 136,000 136,000 97.63% -2.37%

28 Sep 2020, 07:54 StultusVox @StultusVox 136,000 136,000 97.63% -2.37%

22 Sep 2020, 06:05 goku1996 @StodolakSzymon 142,933 142,933 97.39% 2.61%

30 Sep 2020, 16:40 Troy Teslike @TroyTeslike 143,051 143,051 97.31% 2.69% https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1311407099717525505

30 Sep 2020, 16:47 systim @mrwgreig 144,420 143,420 143,420 97.04% 2.96% 108420 Fremont; 35000 Shanghai

28 Sep 2020, 09:04 Denis Szwarc @DenisSzwarc1 135,110 135,110 96.99% -3.01% I think we shouldn't expect 144k, but 135k is very possible.

20 Sep 2020, 22:37 Raj Jain @JainRajsapan 135,000 135,000 96.91% -3.09%

21 Sep 2020, 09:52 Shahab Khatibi @shahab_khatibi 135,000 135,000 96.91% -3.09%

28 Sep 2020, 12:14 Fish 135,000 135,000 96.91% -3.09%

28 Sep 2020, 13:27 FMF 135,000 135,000 96.91% -3.09%

29 Sep 2020, 03:47 Jason 135,000 135,000 96.91% -3.09%

29 Sep 2020, 14:40 elontusk 135,000 135,000 96.91% -3.09%

30 Sep 2020, 19:10 @scidood @scidood 134,500 134,948 134,948 96.88% -3.12% https://twitter.com/scidood/status/1311488080684224512?s=20 This is an upper limit estimate.

30 Sep 2020, 01:31 garyblack00 @garyblack00 144,100 144,100 96.55% 3.45%

21 Sep 2020, 07:46 ValuePilot 144,650 144,650 96.16% 3.84%

23 Sep 2020, 02:40 Prin @premoil 144,840 144,840 96.02% 3.98%

20 Sep 2020, 22:15 김영백 145,000 145,000 95.91% 4.09%

20 Sep 2020, 23:01 elonsworld @elonsworld 145,000 145,000 95.91% 4.09%

21 Sep 2020, 13:32 NIOtime @theniotime 145,000 145,000 95.91% 4.09%

28 Sep 2020, 07:50 Matt 145,000 145,000 95.91% 4.09%

29 Sep 2020, 11:00 Daniela 146,278 145,123 145,123 95.82% 4.18%

28 Sep 2020, 09:46 Mighty Tesla @MightyTesla 145,200 145,200 95.76% 4.24%

28 Sep 2020, 09:53 xHitoBiteZ @xhitobitez 144,850 145,750 145,750 95.37% 4.63% Fremont 108750; Shanghai 37000

20 Sep 2020, 22:14 StocklyticsCo @StocklyticsCo 145,800 145,800 95.33% 4.67%

30 Sep 2020, 02:05 @3xaprn3 @3xaprn3 144,750 145,950 145,950 95.23% 4.77%

20 Sep 2020, 22:48 Lars Ove Skarseth @Lskarseth 146,000 146,000 95.19% 4.81%

28 Sep 2020, 08:01 aBrohanLincoln @therealbmaster 146,000 146,000 95.19% 4.81%

29 Sep 2020, 03:57 TeslafY 146,000 146,000 146,000 95.19% 4.81%

21 Sep 2020, 11:51 Napknicker 146,235 146,235 95.02% 4.98%

28 Sep 2020, 07:46 Princess Mononoke @uwauRenato 146,320 146,320 94.96% 5.04%

21 Sep 2020, 04:02 XAVI @xaviescm 146,425 146,425 94.89% 5.11%

21 Sep 2020, 05:33 Hee @heemsen_ 146,528 146,528 94.81% 5.19%

20 Sep 2020, 22:56 OzStomper @OzStomper 132,000 132,000 94.76% -5.24%

20 Sep 2020, 23:23 Donald trump 132,000 132,000 94.76% -5.24%

21 Sep 2020, 04:48 tslajackpot 146,800 146,800 94.62% 5.38%

30 Sep 2020, 14:16 Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt 146,876 146,876 94.56% 5.44% https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1311414228549611522?s=20

20 Sep 2020, 23:09 Esa 147,000 147,000 94.47% 5.53%

23 Sep 2020, 03:36 Lu @Luyola 147,000 147,000 94.47% 5.53%

20 Sep 2020, 23:26 James @Jamescarlisle35 147,240 147,240 94.30% 5.70%

28 Sep 2020, 09:05 George Andersson @lightningbolt 147,350 147,350 94.22% 5.78%

28 Sep 2020, 08:51 Lukey g @lukegooderham1 147,358 147,358 94.22% 5.78%

21 Sep 2020, 08:42 Daniel V @smalltowndaniel 147,741 147,741 93.94% 6.06%

20 Sep 2020, 22:19 igm95 @igm95 147,808 147,808 93.89% 6.11%

29 Sep 2020, 23:08 skirtap @skirtap 147,875 147,875 93.84% 6.16%

21 Sep 2020, 14:51 bumsi @bumsitheburner 147,999 147,999 93.76% 6.24%

21 Sep 2020, 10:01 Duncana28 148,000 148,000 93.75% 6.25%

28 Sep 2020, 14:03 JC_finance @JC_finance 148,000 148,000 93.75% 6.25%

30 Sep 2020, 07:57 Serious Callers Only @EthicsGradient 148,000 148,000 93.75% 6.25%

21 Sep 2020, 03:10 Luchezar Ivanov 148,300 148,300 93.54% 6.46%

21 Sep 2020, 09:56 Ragtime Joe 148,300 148,300 93.54% 6.46%

28 Sep 2020, 12:07 Tesla Intelligence UK @TIntelUK 148,350 148,350 93.50% 6.50%

20 Sep 2020, 22:13 Sabonis @Nurkbonis 148,420 148,420 93.45% 6.55%

28 Sep 2020, 09:40 Nooblade @Nooblade 148,436 148,436 93.44% 6.56%

21 Sep 2020, 00:09 FiftyOne @51industries 148,500 148,500 93.40% 6.60%

30 Sep 2020, 22:28 Professor Tournesol @sjoerd87777991 148,535 148,535 93.37% 6.63%

28 Sep 2020, 07:46 Benjamin @DaBoosterCali 148,550 148,550 93.36% 6.64%

28 Sep 2020, 08:51 John Swith 120,000 130,000 130,000 93.32% -6.68%

28 Sep 2020, 10:55 Hadi A. @giscope 130,000 130,000 93.32% -6.68% Elon's tweet about the best quarter + trying to keep my own expectations low

28 Sep 2020, 10:06 Jimmy @jimmy_3110 149,000 149,000 93.04% 6.96% MIC 38k EU 32K APAC 10k NA 69K

28 Sep 2020, 10:44 SraM @SraMYaguchi 149,000 149,000 93.04% 6.96%

28 Sep 2020, 12:56 [email protected] @kevin_reiling 149,000 149,000 93.04% 6.96%

29 Sep 2020, 14:32 Tesla Neutral @TeslaNeutral 129,600 129,600 93.04% -6.96%

20 Sep 2020, 22:15 Marcus Christiansen @crizzbee 149,300 149,300 92.82% 7.18%

20 Sep 2020, 22:15 Hans jain 150,000 150,000 92.32% 7.68%

20 Sep 2020, 22:21 raniva 150,000 150,000 92.32% 7.68%

20 Sep 2020, 22:43 Odin @the_alfather 150,000 150,000 92.32% 7.68%

21 Sep 2020, 09:45 investinAI 150,000 150,000 92.32% 7.68%

28 Sep 2020, 09:06 Anass Mardi @AnassXMardi1 150,000 150,000 92.32% 7.68% My estimate is just a guess that I don't think will come to fruition

30 Sep 2020, 08:28 @abledoc @abledoc 150,000 150,000 92.32% 7.68% I assume Fremont would have a record. And adding 35000 from China gives a minimum 150,000

23 Sep 2020, 08:51 Nast_Child @nasty_child 128,500 128,500 92.25% -7.75%

30 Sep 2020, 03:14 viktor 150,372 150,372 92.05% 7.95%

30 Sep 2020, 12:05 @BonaireVolt @BonaireVolt 127,000 127,420 127,420 91.47% -8.53% Adding 420 after seeing Norway registering many old Model S, X in their own name.

29 Sep 2020, 11:05 Kristin v 151,200 151,200 91.46% 8.54%

21 Sep 2020, 07:06 GRW 151,243 151,243 91.43% 8.57%

29 Sep 2020, 05:21 First Principle Investor ᴺᵒᵗ ᶜᶠᵃ @1stPrincipleInv 150,000 151,420 151,420 91.30% 8.70% Final tuned estimate

28 Sep 2020, 08:18 Zain Shafi @ZShafi180 152,300 152,300 90.67% 9.33%

24 Sep 2020, 15:05 jimmy cramerica 152,420 152,420 90.58% 9.42%

28 Sep 2020, 21:46 Taner A 152,420 152,420 90.58% 9.42%

29 Sep 2020, 14:12 Peter Lindblom @stingofsweden 152,450 152,450 90.56% 9.44% Wild guess but gounded in experience

21 Sep 2020, 12:16 ravsohal @ravksohal 126,000 126,000 90.45% -9.55%

20 Sep 2020, 23:16 @chadhuber 153,000 153,000 90.17% 9.83%

28 Sep 2020, 08:02 Bob 153,000 153,000 90.17% 9.83%

28 Sep 2020, 20:07 Jcummings99990 153,000 153,000 90.17% 9.83%

20 Sep 2020, 22:19 Elijah @Elijah10T 153,350 153,350 89.91% 10.09%

21 Sep 2020, 10:09 tjgilmore 125,000 125,000 89.73% -10.27%

30 Sep 2020, 09:15 MerkaST 120,00

Tesla Delivery Estimates Survey
Info
Tags Tesla, Finance, Investing
Type Google Sheet
Published 20/01/2021, 20:28:50

Resources

Tesla - Affordability Worksheet
Tesla Carriers